Contain China? The Obama Doctrine is dangerous [Straits Times]

Do we really need more polarity?

Australia’s great and powerful friends dilemma in focus: The keeping of strategic peace has allowed Australia like many other middle powers, to prosper since the end of WW2.

Professor Hugh White in an earlier paper indicated two key adjustments Australia needed to make to keep this peace (see: The White Quarterly Essay: ‘Power shift: Australia’s future between Washington and Beijing’). First, he established that Australia needed to reconcile that its long-term alliance with the US also witnesses Pax Americana in the Pacific coming to an end. Second, he reasoned that rising China’s challenge to American pre-eminence was ‘no longer a future possibility but a current reality’. This new reality he argued, required Australia to ‘accommodate’ rising Chinese power.

That was well and fine for the past decade. China had been filling in the U.S. vacuum in the region while American attention and its war machine centred in the Middle East. Just when the Asia-Pacific countries were getting used to this new dynamic, the US proclaims its return to the region, guns-blazing and amplifying domestic China-bashing to the international community at the APEC school-yard meeting.

The challenge here for Australia is a strategic conundrum. Does it take White’s prescription to accommodate China, and continuing reaping the economic benefits? Or does it follow the Obama Doctrine in containing China? Perhaps the question wouldn’t be so hard to answer if China wasn’t inching back to great power status at this time.

So here it is, Australia facing a new set of challenges in balancing the geo-political intricacies of the confident Chinese kid on the block looking for parity with the Beijing Consensus. At the other end of the ring we have the American cowboy back to reclaim its turf. How does Australia then avoid the pitfalls of both unnecessary confrontation or conceded appeasement?

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Contain China?
The Obama Doctrine is dangerous
by Hugh White for the Wall Street Journal
Source – Straits Times, published November 27, 2011

SINCE 2009, China’s challenge to American primacy in Asia has become too stark to ignore. Last week President Barack Obama gave his response. On his Asian journey, he enunciated what truly deserves to be called the Obama Doctrine. It is perfectly clear. The United States will resist China’s challenge to its primacy in Asia, using all the instruments of its power to strengthen and perpetuate the preeminent leadership it has exercised in the region for decades.

Mr Obama also sketched plans to implement this doctrine by reorganising Asia under new US-led regional structures which exclude China. His Trans-Pacific Partnership creates a new economic framework for the Asia-Pacific without China, while an expanded defence presence in Australia signals his aim to build armed strength in Asia and draw friends and allies into a larger and tighter strategic coalition against China’s growing military weight.

Of course, Mr Obama hopes that the resolve he has shown will persuade China to drop its challenge and accept US leadership once more. But his doctrine clearly implies that if China cannot be persuaded, it will be compelled. This is very ambitious. Indeed it is America’s most ambitious new strategic doctrine since Truman committed America to contain the Soviet Union.

Filed under: APEC, Australia, Beijing Consensus, Charm Offensive, Chinese Model, Communications, Economics, Influence, International Relations, Mapping Feelings, Politics, Public Diplomacy, Soft Power, Strategy, Territorial Disputes, The Age, The Chinese Identity, The construction of Chinese and Non-Chinese identities, Trade, U.S.

Australian troops to join China in disaster exercises [The Age]

Australia: Despite taking sides with the U.S. during recent rounds of China-bashing, Australia pushes the agenda to leverage both strategic partner U.S. and economic catalyst China.

In a move reminiscent for the Chinese as a strategy to contain it, this recent spate of U.S. determination for Asia-Pacific pre-eminence  seems to spell trouble for the region. After agreeing to host 2500 Marines near Darwin as a U.S. hedge against Chinese muscle-flexing in the region, it could have been expected that the Chinese retaliate in kind and not just rhetoric. I am not sure if the report which states that ‘Chinese military leaders have chosen not to retaliate by cutting or downgrading military relations’ is valid.

From record it seems the Chinese do not act on impulse. They wait for the right moment – continuing what essentially is a civil defence exercise has little to do with hard power.

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Australian troops to join China in disaster exercises
John Garnaut, Beijing
Source – The Age, published November 26, 2011

Australian soldiers will soon be landing in central China for joint exercises with the People’s Liberation Army, demonstrating that relations with Australia’s dominant trading partner remain on track.

The military emergency rescue exercises are modest in scale but highly significant in timing, coming just a fortnight after Australia greatly increased military co-operation with the United States by agreeing to host 2500 US marines near Darwin.

The US-Australia collaboration was framed as part of President Barack Obama’s move to reassert the US presence in Asia as a hedge against Chinese muscle-flexing in the region.

Filed under: Australia, Beijing OIympics, Charm Offensive, Chinese Model, Greater China, Influence, International Relations, military, Politics, Public Diplomacy, Strategy, The Age, The Chinese Identity, The construction of Chinese and Non-Chinese identities, U.S.

China cautions ‘outside forces’ on sea issue [Al Jazeera]

China’s never quite liked outsiders minding their business but it needs to keep in line with its proclaimed peaceful development, at least for the time being. However that doesn’t seem to mean that China will tolerate  hidden agendas. Here’s Premier Wen making it clear to ‘outside forces’ its wishes for regional determinism when it comes to the South China Sea.

This includes dangling a 25 billion loan carrot embedded in friendly consultation and discussions by countries directly involved, where ‘outside forces should not, under any pretext, get involved.’

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China cautions ‘outside forces’ on sea issue
Wen Jiabao sounds warning against interference in dispute with neighbours over potentially oil-rich South China Sea.
Source – Al Jazeera, published November 18, 2011

Wen Jiabao, the Chinese premier, has said “outside forces” had no excuse to get involved in a complex dispute over the South China Sea.

Wen, who spoke on Friday at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit on the Indonesian resort island of Bali, gave a veiled warning to the US and others not to interfere in the sensitive issue.

But he also struck a softer line during the ASEAN summit by offering loans and saying China only wanted to be friends.

Filed under: Al Jazeera, Beijing Consensus, Charm Offensive, Chinese Model, Greater China, Influence, International Relations, military, Nationalism, Peaceful Development, Politics, Public Diplomacy, Strategy, Territorial Disputes, The Chinese Identity, The construction of Chinese and Non-Chinese identities

U.S.-China Trade Talks End With Promise to Protect Intellectual Property [Bloomberg]

A step in the right direction or move to distract the Americans from yuan valuation and the South China Sea flashpoints? With Sino-US trade rising 17 percent thus far in 2011 to $363.1 billion, commerce is defined by Vice Premier Wang Qishan as an “important cornerstone in the China-U.S. relationship.”

So amidst the China-bashing of late as Obama toured to re-assert American pre-eminence in the Asia-pacific, China pledges to abide by international intellectual property rules. Quick Background: Understanding Chinese Attitudes Towards Intellectual Property (IP) Rights (CIO 2006).

This is a move the US expects of responsible international stakeholders – “With that extraordinary growth that China has enjoyed over the last decade comes a responsibility, particularly as it relates to trade and investment,”  U.S. Trade Representative Ronald Kirk.

So, is China listening and participating or biding its time on something else?

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U.S.-China Trade Talks End With Promise to Protect Intellectual Property
Source – Bloomberg, published November 22, 2011 

China pledged to improve its monitoring of intellectual property rights in trade talks with the U.S., as American officials called on the world’s second biggest economy to abide by international rules.

Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan’s promise to create and lead an office focused on protecting intellectual property rights was a “step in the right direction,” U.S. Secretary of Commerce John Bryson said in an interview yesterday with Bloomberg Television after the 22nd U.S.-China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade meeting in Chengdu.

“There’s no question that intellectual property rights have not been respected for the most part here in China,” Bryson said. “We think this is a step in the right direction but there is a long ways to go in having intellectual property rights consistently and broadly recognized in China.”

Filed under: Beijing Consensus, Bloomberg, Charm Offensive, Chinese Model, Communications, Domestic Growth, Economics, Finance, Influence, Intellectual Property, International Relations, Piracy, Politics, Public Diplomacy, Soft Power, Strategy, Tao Guang Yang Hui (韬光养晦), Territorial Disputes, The Chinese Identity, The construction of Chinese and Non-Chinese identities, Trade

Dalai Lama questions wisdom of self-immolations [BBC]

Immolations in protest against Chinese rule to date: 11.

Perhaps the death of spiritual leaders resonate stronger within the populace. China has condemned the ‘immoral and inhuman’ self-immolation campaign and the response by the Dalai Lama, reportedly to be against the effectiveness of such a sacrifice: “Courage alone is no substitute. You must utilise your wisdom.”

For the alleged video – Horrifying video of Tibetan nun in flames on street in latest self-immolation protest against China (Daily Mail, 22 November 2011). For more by the AP wires: Video released by Tibetan rights group allegedly shows Buddhist nun burning herself in protest (Washington Post 22 November 2011)

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Dalai Lama questions wisdom of self-immolations
Source – BBC, published November 18, 2011

The Dalai Lama speaks exclusively to the BBC about his worries for Tibetan monks and nuns

The Tibetan spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, says he is very worried about the growing number of monks and nuns setting themselves on fire to protest against Chinese rule in Tibet.

He told the BBC he was not encouraging such actions – saying there was no doubt they required courage, but questioning how effective they were.

There have been 11 cases of self-immolation so far this year.

Filed under: 52 Unacceptable Practices, Beijing Consensus, Censorship, Charm Offensive, Chinese Model, Culture, Domestic Growth, Economics, Greater China, Han, Influence, International Relations, Media, Migrant Workers, Migration (Internal), Nationalism, Politics, Public Diplomacy, Reform, Social, Territorial Disputes, The Chinese Identity, The construction of Chinese and Non-Chinese identities, Tibet

Wen and Obama’s brief Bali encounter [China Daily]

Will the Chinese are tired of the periodic American blasts at China to please their domestic supporters? While the Obama continues to focus on yuan valuation and the flashpoints of the South China Sea, the Chinese do not seem easily provoked, at least their politicians don’t on the international relations front. Wen’s remarks stayed focused on the bottom line – stating the yuan situation “is not man-made but is the market’s response to the exchanging rate of the renminbi.”‘

Seemingly seeing the forest for the trees and therefore taking a neutral tone is China’s Assistant Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin,”Historically speaking, criticizing China would not definitely win points for US president candidates. But it is a safe strategy that definitely would not lose points.”

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Wen and Obama’s brief Bali encounter
Source – China Daily, published November 20, 2011

China’s Premier Wen Jiabao (left) meets with US President Barack Obama on the sidelines of the East Asia Summit in Nusa Dua, Bali, on Saturday. Photo: Agencies

BALI, Indonesia – Premier Wen Jiabao and US President Barack Obama vowed to keep bilateral ties stable on Saturday, amid subtle tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

The two leaders made the remarks as they met briefly on the sidelines of the East Asia Summit on Saturday.

Obama’s national security adviser Tom Donilon told reporters after the session that Obama stressed the importance of China adjusting its currency value, while territorial disputes in the South China Sea were briefly touched upon.

Filed under: Beijing Consensus, Charm Offensive, China Daily, Chinese Model, Communications, Culture, Domestic Growth, Economics, Finance, Government & Policy, Influence, International Relations, Mapping Feelings, Politics, Public Diplomacy, Soft Power, Strategy, Tao Guang Yang Hui (韬光养晦), The Chinese Identity, The construction of Chinese and Non-Chinese identities, Trade, U.S., Yuan

Pointed message to China [The Age]

Now that the ‘tide of war’ has receded in the Middle East, the US turns its attention back onto the Asia-Pacific. For the first time in a while, the US stands up to openly criticise China as President Obama continues to make ‘pointed’ messages like the one made in APEC (see Obama Puts Pressure on China as U.S. Asserts Asia Influence, Bloomberg Nov 13 2011).

This time it’s in Australia. But it’s compounded with action – especially so after the announcement of a US Marines presence in Darwin, one the Chinese sees as a growing web of links to contain China. Hence, the Chinese feelings are likely to be ‘hurt’ by this gesture as the US pledges it will use every ‘element of American power‘ to champion ‘security, prosperity and dignity’ for the region. Despite Chinese reservations, Australian foreign minister Kevin Rudd made rather clear the Aussie right to self-determinism:

”Let’s just be very blunt about it: we are not going to have our national security policy dictated by any other external power. It’s a sovereign matter for Australia. We don’t seek to dictate to the Chinese on what their national security policy should be.”

This balancing act Australia has to play is not straightforward. Through the ANZUS treaty, Australia and the US have been formal allies since 1951. Today it relies on American hard power as an important part of its long-range strategic shield. On the other hand, it has to hedge this relationship of security with the relationship of economic opportunity with China.

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Pointed message to China
Michelle Grattan, Dylan Welch and Daniel Flitton
Source – The Age, published November 18, 2011

Close allies: Julia Gillard and Barack Obama leave the House of Representatives after the President’s address yesterday. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen

BARACK Obama has used the last day of his Australian visit to deliver a pointed message to China, pledging to use ”every element of American power” to pursue security, prosperity and dignity for all in the Asia Pacific.

A day after the announcement of an increased American military presence in Australia drew a sharp response from Beijing, the President gave a sweeping outline of his vision for an expanded US role in the region.

Now that ”the tide of war” was receding elsewhere, America was enhancing its presence in the Asia Pacific and re-engaging with regional organisations, he told a joint sitting of Parliament in Canberra.

Filed under: Australia, Greater China, Influence, International Relations, Politics, Public Diplomacy, Soft Power, Strategy, The Age, The Chinese Identity, The construction of Chinese and Non-Chinese identities, Trade

Singapore among top migrant destinations for China’s super rich: Report [Today]

Chinese on the move, but this time its for a wholly different reason from previous waves of the Chinese diaspora: This has been visible throughout Singapore in the past few years. For instance, film and kung fu star Jet Li was made a Singaporean citizen in 2009 for his children’s education.

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Singapore among top migrant destinations for China’s super rich: Report
Agencies
Source – Today Online, published November 3, 2011

BEIJING – Nearly half of China’s super rich wants to migrate, said a survey released jointly by the Hurun Report, which also publishes an annual China rich list, and the Bank of China.

According to the South China Morning Post, the survey was conducted on people with assets of more than 10 million yuan (S$2.02 million). The poll was based on one-on-one interviews conducted in 18 major mainland cities from May to September. The average age of respondents was 42 years and had net worths of more than 60 million yuan, the survey said.

The report noted that 14 per cent of the 980 millionaires interviewed had either already moved overseas or were applying to do so.

Filed under: Beijing Consensus, Charm Offensive, Chinese Model, Culture, Domestic Growth, Education, Green China, Influence, International Relations, Mapping Feelings, Overseas Chinese, People, Population, Social, Soft Power, The Chinese Identity, The construction of Chinese and Non-Chinese identities, Today Online

Lee Kuan Yew and Deng Xiaoping ‘had special bond’ [Straits Times]

Contrary to the obvious, Singapore as the only Chinese-majority nation outside of Greater China should naturally be friends with the Chinese nation, ancestral home to more than 70% of the population.

Here’s a look back at how China and Singapore became friends through the ‘special bond’ between Deng Xiaoping and Lee Kuan Yew. Singapore and Lee Kuan Yew were once labelled as running dogs of the West, and it certainly took some effort to change that perspective into useful lessons to be learnt for both sides.

‘He was the most impressive leader I had met. He was a five-footer, but a giant among men. At 74, when he was faced with an unpleasant truth, he was prepared to change his mind.’ Lee Kuan Yew on Deng Xiaoping, two ‘straightforward realist’ leaders who had come of age fighting colonialism,

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Lee Kuan Yew and Deng Xiaoping ‘had special bond’
by Leslie Koh
Source – Straits Times, published November, 14, 2011

New book on Chinese leader tells of mutual respect and admiration.

ONE founded a tiny nation of two million, and succeeded in turning it into an economic powerhouse.

The other reformed a once-great empire of more than 900 million, and was trying to grow its economy after years of poverty and isolation.

One had grown up in an Anglicised family, spoke English better than he did Mandarin, and fought the Communists.

Filed under: Beijing Consensus, Chinese Model, Culture, Domestic Growth, Economics, Education, Ethnicity, Greater China, History, Influence, International Relations, Mapping Feelings, Media, Modernisation, Nationalism, Politics, Public Diplomacy, Reform, Straits Times, Strategy, Tao Guang Yang Hui (韬光养晦), The Chinese Identity, The construction of Chinese and Non-Chinese identities

Obama Puts Pressure on China as U.S. Asserts Asia Influence [Bloomberg]

Honolulu, Hawaii, United States, 13 Nov 2011: APEC’s economic leaders’ meeting is in session with Sino-US ties in the foreground.

President Obama reportedly uses strong language (with the US “increasingly impatient and frustrated” with the pace of progress in relations between the two nations) to remind the region of its continuing leadership while maintaining pressure on China on currency and IP issues.

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Obama Puts Pressure on China as U.S. Asserts Asia Influence
By Margaret Talev and Julianna Goldman
Source – Bloomberg, published November 13, 2011

Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama used his role as host of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit to pressure China on currency and intellectual property rights while telling voters that nations in the region are counting on U.S. leadership.

Obama told Chinese President Hu Jintao yesterday that the American public and businesses are growing “increasingly impatient and frustrated” with the pace of progress in relations between the two nations, said Michael Froman, White House deputy national security adviser. Hu told Obama that a large appreciation of the yuan won’t solve U.S. problems, a statement on the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s website said.

Obama’s strong language came only hours after he announced the U.S. and eight other nations will join in forging an Asia- Pacific trade accord within the next year, a move he said demonstrates that “American leadership is still welcome.”

Filed under: APEC, Beijing Consensus, Bloomberg, Chinese Model, Domestic Growth, Economics, Finance, Influence, International Relations, Mapping Feelings, Media, Peaceful Development, Politics, Public Diplomacy, Reform, Soft Power, Strategy, The Chinese Identity, The construction of Chinese and Non-Chinese identities, Trade, U.S., Yuan