Wandering China

An East/West pulse of China's fourth rise from down under.

Once China catches up – what then? [Straits Times] #RisingChina

Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew on China’s economic prowess, cultural handicaps and the balance of power in the Pacific.

‘I believe that during the next 30 years, the Chinese will have no desire to enter into a conflict with the US. They know they will continue to grow stronger, but they are also aware of how far behind they are technologically. They require continued access to American schools so their students can learn how to reinvent themselves.’ Lee Kuan Yew, 2013

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Once China catches up – what then?
By Lee Kuan Yew
Source – Straits Times, Published Sep 27, 2013

Pedestrians walk past commercial buildings in Shanghai. In 2020, China’s per capita GDP is projected to reach US$10,000, one-fifth that projected for the US. And China’s population will remain four times that of the US. — PHOTO: BLOOMBERG

BARRING any major disruption, the speed at which China is growing in terms of total gross domestic product will enable it to catch up with the US by 2020. China will then go on to surpass America.

During the 1978-2011 period, China’s high average rate of growth – about 10 per cent annually – was the result of Deng Xiaoping’s 1978 trip to Singapore and his subsequent decision to implement economic reforms and open the economy to international investment. During that period, the US economy’s annual growth rate was 2 per cent to 3 per cent.

Despite the financial debt crisis in Europe and the turmoil in US markets over the past few years, China’s economy has continued to register strong growth. According to the World Bank, China’s US$8.22 trillion (S$10.3 trillion) economy is now the second largest in the world, compared with the US$15.68 trillion US economy. China is the world’s largest exporter and its second-largest importer. The recent global economic crisis has allowed China to close its economic gap with the world’s top developed nations.

In 2012, China’s per capita GDP was US$9,233, compared with US$49,965 in the US. In 2020, China’s per capita GDP is projected to reach US$10,000, one-fifth that projected for the US. China’s population in 2012 was 1.4 billion, America’s 316.5 million. In 2020, China’s population will remain four times that of the US. China’s economic growth rate will continue to increase at a much higher rate because the base upon which its economy will grow is enormous in comparison.

Please click here to read the entire article at the Straits Times online.
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Filed under: Beijing Consensus, China Dream, Chinese Model, Collectivism, Culture, Domestic Growth, Economics, Education, Government & Policy, Hard Power, Ideology, Influence, International Relations, Mapping Feelings, Modernisation, Peaceful Development, Politics, Public Diplomacy, Reform, Soft Power, Straits Times, Strategy, Tao Guang Yang Hui (韬光养晦), The Chinese Identity, Trade, U.S.

45 Signs That China Is Colonizing America [The American Dream online] #RisingChina #ColonizingAmerica

Stirring the pot: on American polarising complacency against Chinese misdirection 韬光养晦 .

From The American Dream website/blog by Michael Snyder: Waking People Up And Getting Them To Realize That The American Dream Is Quickly Becoming The American Nightmare

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45 Signs That China Is Colonizing America
By Michael Snyder, on May 23rd, 2012
Source – The American Dream website, published May 23, 2012

Just because you were once the most powerful nation on earth does not mean that you will always be the most powerful nation on earth.  Every single year, hundreds of billions of dollars leaves the United States and goes to China.  This enormous transfer of wealth has had a dramatic effect on both countries.  In case you haven’t noticed, many of our formerly great manufacturing cities such as Detroit are rotting away while shining new factories and skyscrapers are going up all over China.  If you go into any major retail store today and start turning over products, you will find that hundreds of them have been made in China and that very few of them have been made in America.  As a nation, we buy far, far more from China than they buy from us.  As a result, China is absolutely swimming in cash and they have been looking for things to do with all that money.  One thing that China has done is loan the U.S. government over a trillion dollars and this has given the Chinese a tremendous amount of leverage over us.  China has also started to buy up businesses, real estate and natural resources all over America.  This kind of “economic colonization” is similar to what China has already been doing in Africa, South America and Australia.  The formula is actually very simple.  We send them our money and then they use it to buy us.  With each passing day China’s ownership over America grows, and it is frightening to think about where all of this could end.

The following are 45 signs that China is colonizing America….

#1 It was recently announced that China’s Dalian Wanda Group has bought U.S. movie theater chain AMC Entertainment for a whopping 2.6 billion dollars.  This deal represents China’s biggest corporate takeover of a U.S. firm ever.

#2 Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve announced that it has given approval for banks owned by the Chinese government to buy stakes in U.S.-owned banks.

#3 A few days ago Reuters reported that China is now able to completely bypass Wall Street and purchase U.S. debt directly from the U.S. Treasury Department.

Please click here to read the entire article – all 45 signs, at The American Dream website. Read the rest of this entry »

Filed under: Beijing Consensus, Charm Offensive, China Dream, Chinese Model, Culture, Domestic Growth, Economics, Education, Finance, Government & Policy, Hard Power, Ideology, Influence, Mapping Feelings, Media, Modernisation, Peaceful Development, Politics, Public Diplomacy, Reform, Soft Power, Strategy, Tao Guang Yang Hui (韬光养晦), Technology, Territorial Disputes, The Chinese Identity, The construction of Chinese and Non-Chinese identities, Trade, U.S.

Opinion: Coming to terms with China’s rise [Straits Times] #RisingChina #InternationalRelations

An Australian + Singapore perspective on the concert of nations in the contemporary multipolar status quo.

Asad Latif with a book review of Australia National University Professor Hugh Whites’s The China Choice: Why We Should Share Power.

This is a thought-provoking book by a first-rate strategic intellectual. Still, some of White’s observations are questionable. Referring to the Monroe Doctrine – under which America reserved for itself a pre-eminent role in the Western Hemisphere that excluded sharing power with others – he implies that China could have a comparable doctrine in Asia. Asad Latif

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Coming to terms with China’s rise
America has three choices – resist China’s rise, withdraw from Asia, or agree to share power
By Asad Latif For The Straits Times
Source – Straits Times, published August 17, 2013 (subscription required)

From left: Chinese State Councillor Yang Jiechi, Chinese Vice-Premier Wang Yang, US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew and US Deputy Secretary of State William Burns at the end of the 5th United States and China Strategic and Economic Dialogue last month. Officials from the two world powers met to discuss their countries’ relationship. — PHOTO: AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

The China Choice: Why We Should Share Power
Hugh White
publisher Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013, 191 pages

WAR between America and China is a clear and sufficient danger, the Australian strategic thinker Hugh White warns in this book. Both countries are formulating their military plans and building their forces specifically with the other in mind.

They are competing to garner support from other Asian countries. Ominously, they are viewing regional disputes such as in the South China Sea as terrains of rivalry.

Since a major Asian war could be the worst in history, the United States – the region’s preponderant power today – should avoid the calamity. So should China, which is fast catching up with America economically and capable of translating this power into military clout.

However, unlike the US, China does not see itself as the only great power in the international system. It does not seek to oust America from Asia, as America seeks to contain it in Asia. Hence, it is up to Washington to make overtures to Beijing that would prevent a catastrophic war.

Please click here to access the entire article at the Straits Times online (subscription required). Read the rest of this entry »

Filed under: Australia, Beijing Consensus, Chinese Model, Communications, Government & Policy, Hard Power, Ideology, Influence, International Relations, Mapping Feelings, Media, Modernisation, New Leadership, Peaceful Development, Politics, Public Diplomacy, Singapore, Soft Power, Straits Times, Strategy, Tao Guang Yang Hui (韬光养晦), The Chinese Identity, The construction of Chinese and Non-Chinese identities, U.S.

China Threat? Former French Diplomat Says No [Forbes] #RisingChina #PeacefulDevelopment

Adding empathy to the eye of the beholder: a gap in the China Threat perception.

In trying to grasp the motives of a more assertive China in territorial disputes such as the South China Sea, Vairon suggests the U.S. try putting itself in China’s shoes for a moment. He posits a situation where China stations its navy in the Gulf of Mexico or the Caribbean’s due to disquietude with the U.S.-Cuban relations.

Also see –
A Q&A with Lionel Vairon, author of “China Threat?” (CN Books)
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China Threat? Former French Diplomat Says No
By Heng Shao, Forbes Staff
Source – Forbes, published July 29, 2013

Is China a threat? Not by nature, but perhaps by reaction, said former French diplomat Lionel Vairon at the launch of the English version of his book, “China Threat?” last Thursday at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. He believes that the fear of a rising China results from the inability of Western countries to recognize China’s legitimate national interests. China will become problematic only if dominant powers attempt to contain it and deny its place in the international society.

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Former French Diplomat Lionel Vairon (Second To Right) At The Launch of “China Threat?”

Vairon, who worked as a diplomat for 16 years in Asia, Africa and the Middle East for the French government and now runs a strategic consulting firm in China, traces the fear of China to a Western mentality still fixated on the Cold War era. Whereas hegemony of super powers was the norm of the past, the current philosophy of international relations should adapt to a “multi-polar system without any major power,” Vairon argues.

“It’s important for us to understand that the colonial time and the imperial time is over,” says Vairon. “Now we’re not talking about new super powers, China will be No.1, No.2.” Rather, China is more concerned with defending its own national interests than becoming the next overlord.

In trying to grasp the motives of a more assertive China in territorial disputes such as the South China Sea, Vairon suggests the U.S. try putting itself in China’s shoes for a moment. He posits a situation where China stations its navy in the Gulf of Mexico or the Caribbean’s due to disquietude with the U.S.-Cuban relations.

“I wonder how [America] would react in the region.” Vairon says. “The U.S. [needs to] recognize that China has vital interests in its neighborhood, which doesn’t mean controlling or invading…It just means ‘we don’t you to be on our borders.’ ”

“We are threatened, so are the Chinese,” Vairon adds.

Please click here to read the entire article at Forbes.

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Filed under: Beijing Consensus, Charm Offensive, Chinese Model, Communications, Culture, Forbes, Government & Policy, Hard Power, Influence, International Relations, Mapping Feelings, Media, Modernisation, Peaceful Development, Public Diplomacy, Soft Power, Strategy, Tao Guang Yang Hui (韬光养晦), Territorial Disputes, The Chinese Identity, The construction of Chinese and Non-Chinese identities, U.S.

Trial flight photos of China’s J-31 stealth fighter [Xinhua] #RisingChina #StealthHardPower

Hard power update: the Shenyang J-31 is a fifth-generation jet fighter with stealth characteristics developed by the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation.

Please visit the Xinhua page for high res photos.

Also, check out a Nov 2012 CCTV report on youtube here.

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Trial flight photos of China’s J-31 stealth fighter
Editor: Deng Shasha
Source – Xinhua, published July 1, 2013

Photos: Global Times
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Filed under: Aviation, Beijing Consensus, Charm Offensive, China Dream, Chinese Model, Communications, Government & Policy, Hard Power, Influence, military, Public Diplomacy, Reform, Research, Strategy, Tao Guang Yang Hui (韬光养晦), Technology, The Chinese Identity

Foreign buyers eye Chinese drones [China Daily] #RisingChina #UAV #HardPower

A glimpse at one of three state backed UAV projects.

For more, see

Low-cost Chinese drone to be unveiled at Zhuhai show: Mainland enters lucrative global UAV market with prices well below US and Israeli rivals (SCMP, November 11, 2012)

And

Orders taken for Chinese drone
(Global Times, November 15, 2013)

China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation’s CH-4.

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Foreign buyers eye Chinese drones
By Zhao Lei
Source – China Daily, published June 20, 2013

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A Wing Loong drone on display at Zhuhai Airshow last year. Phot by Liang Xu / Xinhua

Technological advances have made unmanned vehicle an attractive deal

At least five countries are negotiating with China on buying its domestically developed Wing Loong drone.

“Wing Loong is quite competitive in the international market and we have delivered it to up to three clients,” Ma Zhiping, general manager of China National Aero-Technology Import and Export Corp, said at the 50th International Paris Air Show.

Ma’s company is the biggest exporter of aviation defense products in China and has a strong presence in the military aircraft market. It belongs to Aviation Industry Corp of China, the country’s leading aircraft manufacturer.

Please click here to read the entire article at China Daily.

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Filed under: Aviation, Beijing Consensus, Charm Offensive, China Daily, China Dream, Chinese Model, Domestic Growth, Economics, Government & Policy, Hard Power, Ideology, Influence, International Relations, Mapping Feelings, military, Peaceful Development, Public Diplomacy, Strategy, Tao Guang Yang Hui (韬光养晦), Technology, The Chinese Identity

Closer to China by degrees [Guardian] #RisingChina #Australia

Australia looking to shift its sights – how to milk rising China’s next phase of growth. By becoming a confluence of China’s booming middle class hierarchy of needs, perhaps?

The Aussies have taken big steps to show the world it is possible to grow up and smell the roses. There is good business to be done and they know how to do it. The White Australia policy is still in recent memory yet the Chinese have been here since the gold rush days in the 1800s.  Nevertheless for some perspective – Chinese make up  4% of the Australian population in one of the planet’s sparsest spaces with 2.8 people per km/2.

Fast forward 2013, Australia is smart enough to manage both the US and China without greatly offending the other – yet milking both abundant strategic and economic reward from both.

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Closer to China by degrees
As Chinese growth slows, Australia needs to focus on exports in which it may not always enjoy a natural advantage
by Greg Jericho
Source – Guardian, published Monday 24 June 2013

As China's economy slows, Australia needs to focus on education and tourism to draw spending from the country. Photograph: AAP

As China’s economy slows, Australia needs to focus on education and tourism to draw spending from the country. Photograph: AAP

Recent news from China and America has caused some panic around the world and should reinforce the view that the Australian economy of the early 2000s will not come back, regardless of who is in power after 14 September.

The tremors started in America and flowed to China, and in some ways the news out of both was the same. In essence it boiled down to both nations saying that the government could not carry the economy forever.

The chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, let it be known that if the US economy improves and if the unemployment rate goes below 7% it will start to think about easing its monetary policy by cutting back on buying $85bn worth of bonds each month. He also noted that later the Federal Reserve might think about raising interest rates. Much later – like perhaps two years’ time!

That such news resulted in the US dollar appreciating against all currencies gives you an indicator of how skittish markets can be. This was an announcement of things that might happen if things keep going well. So you can imagine how edgy they would get when news comes out about things happening now – bad things.

And this brings us to China.

Please click here to read the entire article at the Guardian.

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Filed under: Australia, Beijing Consensus, Charm Offensive, Chinese Model, Communications, Culture, Domestic Growth, Economics, Education, Ethnicity, Finance, Government & Policy, Hard Power, History, Human Rights, Ideology, Influence, International Relations, Mapping Feelings, Media, Migrant Workers, Modernisation, New Leadership, Overseas Chinese, Peaceful Development, Politics, Public Diplomacy, Resources, Social, Soft Power, Strategy, Tao Guang Yang Hui (韬光养晦), The Chinese Identity, The construction of Chinese and Non-Chinese identities, The Guardian, Tourism, Trade

Redefining relations [China Daily] #RisingChina #XiObamaSummit #TransPacificCooperation

The vast Pacific Ocean has enough space to accommodate the two big nations of China and the US,” Xi Jinping said before the meeting.

Trans-Pacific cooperation seems the end game for Xi in this informal game of leverage between two very important decision makers. Representing the hearts, hopes and aims of the China’s fourth rise, Xi the torchbearer can ill afford to come across as simply, amicable. That said…

Neither China nor the US wants confrontation… It’s especially notable that they pledged to improve military ties, the most sensitive issue that have occasionally strained relations” Ma Zhengang, deputy president of the China Public Diplomacy Association

However rhetoric remains verbal hot air till mutual understanding arrives…

“If we cannot understand each other, it can cause problems,” Yang Jiemian, president of the Shanghai Institute for International Studies

Bridging a communicative gap involves more than semantic and consensus. Understanding – addresses only part of the equation – what of subtext, meta messages, and perceptual tendencies and noise, just to name a few.

For more, see

– Shirtsleeves summit’ warms relations The Age, June 9, 2013

– President Xi Jinping visits three Latin American nations, meets Obama in U.S. Xinhua Special Coverage website.

Also, check out the China Daily infographic below to get a sense of China’s transpacific posturing intent.

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Redefining relations
By Zhe Zhe in Rancho Mirage, California, Chen Weihua in Washington, and Zhang Chunyan in London
Source – China Daily, published March 9, 2013

20130609-092548.jpg

President Xi Jinping and US President Barack Obama meet the media after their talk at Sunnylands in Rancho Mirage, California, on Friday. Photo by Lan Hongguang / Xinhua

China and the United States will increase comprehensive exchanges, as the countries commit to building a new type of power relationship, the presidents of the world’s two largest economies said on Friday.

After the first meeting of their two-day summit, President Xi Jinping and US counterpart, Barack Obama, stressed the importance of the countries’ ties in a globalized economy.

“I am confident of building a new type of relationship, as long as we are committed to it,” Xi said at the Walter and Leonore Annenberg Estate at Sunnylands, California.

Please click here to read the full article at China Daily.

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Filed under: Beijing Consensus, Charm Offensive, China Daily, Chinese Model, Communications, Culture, Economics, Finance, Government & Policy, Greater China, Hard Power, History, Ideology, Influence, International Relations, Mapping Feelings, Media, military, Modernisation, Nationalism, New Leadership, Peaceful Development, Politics, Public Diplomacy, Reform, Soft Power, Strategy, Tao Guang Yang Hui (韬光养晦), Territorial Disputes, The Chinese Identity, The construction of Chinese and Non-Chinese identities, Trade, U.S., Xi Jinping

China’s New Backyard [Foreign Policy] #RisingChina #SinoUS #InternationalRelations

The overt American pivot meets Chinese sleight of encirclement…

Tit for that no matter the perception filter. Is this setting indicative for the early half of the twenty first century? Two camps incapable of consensus in action, attitudes, or rhetoric making us the rest of pawns in their proxy backyard wars, invites lament.

For more, see

Paranoid Republic: No summit can bridge the political gap between Washington and Beijing by Minxin Pei in Foreign Policy, June 6, 2013

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China’s New Backyard
Does Washington realize how deeply Beijing has planted a flag in Latin America?
By R. Evan Ellis
Source – Foreign Policy, published June 6, 2013

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For the past decade, Washington has looked with discomfort at China’s growing interest in Latin America. But while Beijing’s diplomats bulked up on their Spanish and Portuguese, most U.S. policymakers slept soundly, confident that the United States still held a dominant position in the minds of its southern neighbors. In April 2005, the U.S. House of Representatives Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere held a hearing on China’s influence in the hemisphere and concluded that the U.S. position in the Western Hemisphere was much stronger than China’s and, moreover, that Beijing’s economic engagement in the region did not present a security threat. But that was 2005.

In late May of this year, when U.S. Vice President Joe Biden went to Latin America for a three-day, three-country tour, Beijing was hot on his heels. Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Trinidad and Tobago just days after Biden left: Whereas Trinidad and Tobago’s prime minister, Kamla Persad-Bissessar, characterized her discussions with Biden as “at times brutal,” Xi’s stop in Trinidad and Tobago included the unveiling of a children’s hospital funded with $150 million from the Chinese government, discussion of energy projects, and meetings with seven Caribbean heads of state. Xi’s itinerary took him to Costa Rica and Mexico on June 4 to 6, but his shadow followed Biden all the way to Brazil. In Rio de Janeiro, Biden referred to a new “strategic partnership” between the United States and Brazil, yet his words’ impact was undercut by the strategic partnership that Brazil has had with China since 1993 and the much-publicized fact that China overtook the United States as Brazil’s largest trading partner in 2009 (trade between China and Brazil exceeded $75 billion in 2012). It’s not an accident that Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff made a state visit to China in April 2011, prior to paying one to the United States.

Make no mistake: China is now a presence in the region. Xi’s trip to Trinidad and Tobago is only the second visit by a Chinese president to the Caribbean — his predecessor, Hu Jintao, visited communist Cuba in November 2008 — but China and the Caribbean’s economic and political ties have been growing rapidly. On this trip, Xi promised more than $3 billion in loans to 10 Caribbean countries and Costa Rica. Xi’s choice of three destinations near the United States, followed by a “shirt-sleeves” summit with U.S. President Barack Obama on June 7 and 8 at the Sunnylands resort in California, sends a subtle message that the new Chinese leadership seeks to engage the United States globally as an equal — without the deference shown in the past to the United States in countries close to its borders.

Please click here to read the full article a Foreign Policy.

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Filed under: Beijing Consensus, Charm Offensive, China Dream, Chinese Model, Communications, Economics, Environment, Finance, Government & Policy, Hard Power, Ideology, Influence, International Relations, Mapping Feelings, Nationalism, New Leadership, Peaceful Development, Politics, Public Diplomacy, Resources, Social, Soft Power, Strategy, Tao Guang Yang Hui (韬光养晦), Territorial Disputes, The Chinese Identity, The construction of Chinese and Non-Chinese identities, Trade, U.S.

Time to rebuild China-US trust [Straits Times] #SinoAmerica #RisingChina

A time to set a new example for the status quo?

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Time to rebuild China-US trust
Editorial
Source – Straits Times, published May 27, 2013

SUSPICION has overtaken trust in Sino-American ties in recent months for the summit between President Xi Jinping and President Barack Obama on June 7 and 8 to assume greater than usual significance. The two leaders will have a face-to-face chance to clear the air over such frictions as North Korean nuclear arms, East and South China Sea island disputes, cyber-hacking and trade issues.

It is good that they are meeting a few months earlier than planned. Before intervening distractions arise, it would be helpful if the two leaders are able to deepen their personal rapport in the relaxed ambience of the Californian venue. It is important to set the right tone for cooperation as regional if not global stability rides very much on how these powers, the world’s two largest economies, conduct their relations.

Beyond immediate trouble-shooting, Mr Xi and Mr Obama can and should help their countries’ ties mature. The two sides have dozens of mechanisms for communication and cooperation at various levels, including the China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue and the China-US High-Level Consultation on People-to-People Exchange. They certainly should, as Mr Xi suggests, make the most of these, but there is nothing like a summit to reset the way the leaders view and deal with each other.

Please click here to read the rest of the article at the Straits Times.

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Filed under: Beijing Consensus, Charm Offensive, China Dream, Chinese Model, Communications, Culture, Economics, Education, Finance, Government & Policy, Hard Power, Ideology, Influence, International Relations, Internet, Mapping Feelings, Media, military, Modernisation, Nationalism, New Leadership, Peaceful Development, People, Politics, Public Diplomacy, Soft Power, Straits Times, Strategy, Tao Guang Yang Hui (韬光养晦), Technology, Territorial Disputes, The Chinese Identity, The construction of Chinese and Non-Chinese identities, Trade, U.S.

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