Wandering China

An East/West pulse of China's fourth rise from down under.

CrossTalk: China Power Engine Without Fuel? [Russia Today]

CrossTalk show at the APEC 2012 meeting from Russia Today : Running time 25.26minutes

Jim Rogers, William Powell from Time Magazine and David Pilling, Asia Editor from the Financial Times discuss the destiny of the Chinese economy.  For instance – Are we expecting too much for the Chinese economy when they loudly announced to the world they were slowing down?

Some key areas stood out:

1. Have we gotten too used to China as an engine of growth but it is not in the position to bail out the rest of the world. Though it has huge savings, its economy is only 1/10 of Europe, the US and Japan combined – has the world taken China for granted? Why can’t China have a recession?
2. Soft or Hard Landing? – depends on industry – basic services, consumer growth will continue to boom, though real estate stands to take a hard landing.
3. Signalling and shifting gears by looking inward – shift from investor-led growth with its side effects to a stronger focus on domestic demand.
4. Question of Western media lecturing China what to do + Bias of Financial media
5. Symbiosis rolling down the cliff (Interdependence becomes a crutch)
5. Cyclical slump with systemic implications because of the once-in-a-decade leadership transition
6. Questioning the veracity of government figures
7. Protectionism as a response
8. Nationalisation of the Yuan

– – –

CrossTalk: China Power Engine Without Fuel?
with Peter Lavelle
Source – Russia Today on Youtube, September 12, 2012

Will over-investing lead to a bust? Could China shatter markets across the world? And if there is a hard landing, what will the consequences be? CrossTalking with Jim Rogers, William Powell and David Pilling from the Financial Times.

RT LIVE http://rt.com/on-air

Filed under: APEC, Beijing Consensus, Chinese Model, Domestic Growth, Economics, Environment, Finance, Financial Times, Government & Policy, Influence, japan, Media, Modernisation, Peaceful Development, Politics, Pollution, Population, Public Diplomacy, Reform, Social, Soft Power, Strategy, Tao Guang Yang Hui (韬光养晦), The Chinese Identity, The construction of Chinese and Non-Chinese identities, Trade, U.S., , , , , , , , ,

Contain China? The Obama Doctrine is dangerous [Straits Times]

Do we really need more polarity?

Australia’s great and powerful friends dilemma in focus: The keeping of strategic peace has allowed Australia like many other middle powers, to prosper since the end of WW2.

Professor Hugh White in an earlier paper indicated two key adjustments Australia needed to make to keep this peace (see: The White Quarterly Essay: ‘Power shift: Australia’s future between Washington and Beijing’). First, he established that Australia needed to reconcile that its long-term alliance with the US also witnesses Pax Americana in the Pacific coming to an end. Second, he reasoned that rising China’s challenge to American pre-eminence was ‘no longer a future possibility but a current reality’. This new reality he argued, required Australia to ‘accommodate’ rising Chinese power.

That was well and fine for the past decade. China had been filling in the U.S. vacuum in the region while American attention and its war machine centred in the Middle East. Just when the Asia-Pacific countries were getting used to this new dynamic, the US proclaims its return to the region, guns-blazing and amplifying domestic China-bashing to the international community at the APEC school-yard meeting.

The challenge here for Australia is a strategic conundrum. Does it take White’s prescription to accommodate China, and continuing reaping the economic benefits? Or does it follow the Obama Doctrine in containing China? Perhaps the question wouldn’t be so hard to answer if China wasn’t inching back to great power status at this time.

So here it is, Australia facing a new set of challenges in balancing the geo-political intricacies of the confident Chinese kid on the block looking for parity with the Beijing Consensus. At the other end of the ring we have the American cowboy back to reclaim its turf. How does Australia then avoid the pitfalls of both unnecessary confrontation or conceded appeasement?

– – –

Contain China?
The Obama Doctrine is dangerous
by Hugh White for the Wall Street Journal
Source – Straits Times, published November 27, 2011

SINCE 2009, China’s challenge to American primacy in Asia has become too stark to ignore. Last week President Barack Obama gave his response. On his Asian journey, he enunciated what truly deserves to be called the Obama Doctrine. It is perfectly clear. The United States will resist China’s challenge to its primacy in Asia, using all the instruments of its power to strengthen and perpetuate the preeminent leadership it has exercised in the region for decades.

Mr Obama also sketched plans to implement this doctrine by reorganising Asia under new US-led regional structures which exclude China. His Trans-Pacific Partnership creates a new economic framework for the Asia-Pacific without China, while an expanded defence presence in Australia signals his aim to build armed strength in Asia and draw friends and allies into a larger and tighter strategic coalition against China’s growing military weight.

Of course, Mr Obama hopes that the resolve he has shown will persuade China to drop its challenge and accept US leadership once more. But his doctrine clearly implies that if China cannot be persuaded, it will be compelled. This is very ambitious. Indeed it is America’s most ambitious new strategic doctrine since Truman committed America to contain the Soviet Union. Read the rest of this entry »

Filed under: APEC, Australia, Beijing Consensus, Charm Offensive, Chinese Model, Communications, Economics, Influence, International Relations, Mapping Feelings, Politics, Public Diplomacy, Soft Power, Strategy, Territorial Disputes, The Age, The Chinese Identity, The construction of Chinese and Non-Chinese identities, Trade, U.S.

Obama Puts Pressure on China as U.S. Asserts Asia Influence [Bloomberg]

Honolulu, Hawaii, United States, 13 Nov 2011: APEC’s economic leaders’ meeting is in session with Sino-US ties in the foreground.

President Obama reportedly uses strong language (with the US “increasingly impatient and frustrated” with the pace of progress in relations between the two nations) to remind the region of its continuing leadership while maintaining pressure on China on currency and IP issues.

– – –

Obama Puts Pressure on China as U.S. Asserts Asia Influence
By Margaret Talev and Julianna Goldman
Source – Bloomberg, published November 13, 2011

Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama used his role as host of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit to pressure China on currency and intellectual property rights while telling voters that nations in the region are counting on U.S. leadership.

Obama told Chinese President Hu Jintao yesterday that the American public and businesses are growing “increasingly impatient and frustrated” with the pace of progress in relations between the two nations, said Michael Froman, White House deputy national security adviser. Hu told Obama that a large appreciation of the yuan won’t solve U.S. problems, a statement on the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s website said.

Obama’s strong language came only hours after he announced the U.S. and eight other nations will join in forging an Asia- Pacific trade accord within the next year, a move he said demonstrates that “American leadership is still welcome.” Read the rest of this entry »

Filed under: APEC, Beijing Consensus, Bloomberg, Chinese Model, Domestic Growth, Economics, Finance, Influence, International Relations, Mapping Feelings, Media, Peaceful Development, Politics, Public Diplomacy, Reform, Soft Power, Strategy, The Chinese Identity, The construction of Chinese and Non-Chinese identities, Trade, U.S., Yuan

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